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Mauá U20 vs Capivariano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Mauá U20

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Capivariano U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-115.3%0-212.1%0-36.3%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.8%2-14.4%2-23.5%2-31.8%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

Draw 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Away win 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -9.7%

BTTS 49.9% 57.5% 1.74 -13.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.9% 3.34 +2.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob49.9%

A 55% / xG 0.8-1.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 0–2 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mauá U200.8

Capivariano U201.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAUÁ U20 · PPG 0.83

CAPIVARIANO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mauá U20 (H) 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Capivariano U20 (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mauá U20 face Capivariano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mauá U20 a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Capivariano U20 55%, so Capivariano U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mauá U20 and 1.6 for Capivariano U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mauá U20 are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Capivariano U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.9%.

Mauá U20 vs Capivariano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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