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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Desportivo Brasil U20

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

UPCOMING

São Paulo U20

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-115.3%0-27.4%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.0%2-15.9%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.7%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 24.4% 4.10 +24.6%

Draw 31.4% 27.8% 3.60 +13.0%

Away win 38.2% 59.9% 1.67 -36.2%

Over 2.5 39.5% 54.1% 1.85 -26.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 36.0% 2.78 -25.1%

BTTS 48.0% 59.2% 1.69 -18.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.4% 3.18 -2.1%

Away O1.5 27.4% 57.5% 1.74 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 0–1 15.3%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 13.8%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Desportivo Brasil U200.9

São Paulo U201.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DESPORTIVO BRASIL U20 · PPG 2.67

SÃO PAULO U20 · PPG 2.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Desportivo Brasil U20 (H) 30.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +24.6%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.0%

São Paulo U20 (A) 38.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -36.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Desportivo Brasil U20 face São Paulo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Desportivo Brasil U20 a 30% chance, the draw 31% and São Paulo U20 38%, so São Paulo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Desportivo Brasil U20 and 1.0 for São Paulo U20 (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Desportivo Brasil U20 are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.17 for São Paulo U20.

Desportivo Brasil U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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