Today / Montevideo City vs Boston River

Montevideo City vs Boston River Prediction

Friday, April 24, 2026

Montevideo City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Boston River

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-18.2%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-111.3%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.8%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 31.4% — — —

Over 3.5 13.7% — — —

BTTS 33.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.1%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montevideo City1.4

Boston River0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEVIDEO CITY · PPG 1.40

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Montevideo City (H) 56.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boston River (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montevideo City face Boston River on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montevideo City a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Boston River 16%, so Montevideo City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Montevideo City and 0.6 for Boston River (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montevideo City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Boston River. This match finished 4-1.

Montevideo City vs Boston River Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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