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Heidelberg Utd vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Avondale

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.6%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.6%1-110.9%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 48.8% 2.05 -12.9%

Draw 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -15.5%

Away win 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 36.9% 38.5% 2.60 -4.1%

BTTS 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.4%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd1.6

Avondale1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.25

AVONDALE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.5%

Avondale (A) 33.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face Avondale in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Avondale 34%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Heidelberg Utd and 1.4 for Avondale (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Heidelberg Utd vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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