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Arambagh vs Rahmatgonj Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Arambagh

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Rahmatgonj

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-113.8%0-27.3%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.2%2-16.6%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 37.0% — — —

Over 2.5 33.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.0% — — —

BTTS 40.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob40.8%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–0✓ 12.7%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arambagh1.0

Rahmatgonj1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAMBAGH · PPG 0.67

RAHMATGONJ · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Arambagh (H) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rahmatgonj (A) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arambagh face Rahmatgonj in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arambagh a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Rahmatgonj 37%, so Rahmatgonj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arambagh and 1.1 for Rahmatgonj (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arambagh are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Rahmatgonj. This match finished 1-0.

Arambagh vs Rahmatgonj Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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