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Brunswick City vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Brunswick City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Langwarrin

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-01.9%1-13.7%1-23.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.9%2-25.8%2-33.8%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-26.0%3-34.0%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-110.4%4+-210.3%4+-36.8%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 50.0% 2.00 +21.8%

Draw 16.2% 29.4% 3.40 -44.9%

Away win 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -31.6%

Over 2.5 88.4% — — —

Over 3.5 75.0% — — —

BTTS 82.4% 71.4% 1.40 +15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob82.4%

H 61% / xG 3.1-2.0 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 82%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 4–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City3.1

Langwarrin2.0

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.4% · O3.5 PROB 75.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.00

LANGWARRIN · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 60.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +21.8%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -44.9%

Langwarrin (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 61% chance, the draw 16% and Langwarrin 23%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Brunswick City and 2.0 for Langwarrin (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 82% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Langwarrin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Brunswick City vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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