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Sydney FC B vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.1%0-25.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.2%1-110.1%1-28.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.8%3-14.6%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 35.7% 2.80 +8.9%

Draw 23.1% 29.0% 3.45 -20.3%

Away win 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.5% 1.60 +1.8%

Over 3.5 41.5% 40.8% 2.45 +1.7%

BTTS 64.9% 67.6% 1.48 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.9%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC B1.6

Sutherland S.1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.43

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC B (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +8.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -20.3%

Sutherland S. (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC B face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC B a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Sutherland S. 38%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sydney FC B and 1.6 for Sutherland S. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC B are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.20 for Sutherland S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Sydney FC B vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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