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Abahani vs Fortis Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Abahani

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Fortis

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.8%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 52.6% 1.90 -14.3%

Draw 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

Away win 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -9.6%

Over 2.5 33.0% 50.0% 2.00 -34.0%

Over 3.5 14.8% — — —

BTTS 39.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.9%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abahani1.2

Fortis0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ABAHANI · PPG 2.17

FORTIS · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Abahani (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.3%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.6%

Fortis (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Abahani face Fortis in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abahani a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Fortis 25%, so Abahani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Abahani and 0.8 for Fortis (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abahani are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.17 for Fortis. This match finished 1-0.

Abahani vs Fortis Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions