Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Green Gully vs Preston Lions

Green Gully vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Preston Lions

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+37.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-113.8%0-216.1%0-312.5%0-4+12.7%1 1-02.9%1-16.8%1-28.0%1-36.2%1-4+6.2%2 2-00.7%2-11.7%2-22.0%2-31.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.2% 25.0% 4.00 -75.2%

Draw 15.0% 27.8% 3.60 -46.0%

Away win 78.8% 57.1% 1.75 +37.9%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 33.9% 2.95 -7.4%

BTTS 35.2% 59.9% 1.67 -41.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob35.2%

A 79% / xG 0.5-2.3 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.1%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 0–3 12.5%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 0–4✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.5

Preston Lions2.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.33

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 6.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -75.2%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -46.0%

Preston Lions (A) 78.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 6% chance, the draw 15% and Preston Lions 79%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Green Gully and 2.3 for Preston Lions (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 0-4.

Green Gully vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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