Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Saarbrucken vs Hansa Rostock

Saarbrucken vs Hansa Rostock Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Saarbrucken

PPG 1.72 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hansa Rostock

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.1%0-27.7%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

Draw 25.7% 27.8% 3.60 -4.5%

Away win 42.0% 38.5% 2.60 +9.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 42.6% 2.35 -19.3%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saarbrucken1.2

Hansa Rostock1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAARBRUCKEN · PPG 1.72

HANSA ROSTOCK · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.72), Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Saarbrucken (H) 32.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.5%

Hansa Rostock (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saarbrucken face Hansa Rostock in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saarbrucken a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Hansa Rostock 42%, so Hansa Rostock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Saarbrucken and 1.5 for Hansa Rostock (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saarbrucken are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.78 for Hansa Rostock. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 3-4.

Saarbrucken vs Hansa Rostock Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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