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Regensburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Regensburg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Energie Cottbus

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.9%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.4%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.6%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.3%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 22.2% 4.50 +58.4%

Draw 24.4% 22.7% 4.40 +4.4%

Away win 40.4% 61.7% 1.62 -34.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Over 3.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Regensburg1.5

Energie Cottbus1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REGENSBURG · PPG 1.67

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 1.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.61)

Win probability 1X2

Regensburg (H) 35.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +58.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.4%

Energie Cottbus (A) 40.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Regensburg face Energie Cottbus in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Regensburg a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Energie Cottbus 40%, so Energie Cottbus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Regensburg and 1.7 for Energie Cottbus (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Regensburg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.61 for Energie Cottbus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Regensburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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