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FC Ingolstadt vs Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

FC Ingolstadt

PPG 1.11 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mannheim

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.7%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.3%1-19.3%1-26.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.1%3-16.0%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

BTTS 59.7% 74.1% 1.35 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Ingolstadt2.0

Mannheim1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC INGOLSTADT · PPG 1.11

MANNHEIM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

FC Ingolstadt (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Mannheim (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ingolstadt face Mannheim in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ingolstadt a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Mannheim 25%, so FC Ingolstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Ingolstadt and 1.5 for Mannheim (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ingolstadt are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.00 for Mannheim. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 5-1.

FC Ingolstadt vs Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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