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MSV Duisburg vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

MSV Duisburg

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Viktoria Koln

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.6%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 71.4% 1.40 -27.6%

Draw 24.0% 21.7% 4.60 +6.2%

Away win 24.3% 12.9% 7.75 +53.0%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 34.6% 41.7% 2.40 -17.0%

BTTS 56.6% 57.8% 1.73 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MSV Duisburg1.8

Viktoria Koln1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 2.56

VIKTORIA KOLN · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

MSV Duisburg (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -27.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.2%

Viktoria Koln (A) 24.3%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +53.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

MSV Duisburg face Viktoria Koln in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MSV Duisburg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Viktoria Koln 24%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for MSV Duisburg and 1.1 for Viktoria Koln (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MSV Duisburg are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.28 for Viktoria Koln. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.0%. This match finished 1-1.

MSV Duisburg vs Viktoria Koln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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