← Back to picks 
Germany - 3. Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 11:30 
MSV Duisburg PPG 2.56 
Viktoria Koln PPG 1.28
Germany - 3. Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 11:30 MSV Duisburg PPG 2.561-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Viktoria Koln PPG 1.28Away· +53.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.57 -7.2%
Over 3.5 34.6% Odds: 2.40 -17.0%
BTTS 56.6% Odds: 1.73 -2.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✔
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
MSV Duisburg 1.85
Viktoria Koln 1.12
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -7.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -7.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+53.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+53.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=51.7%