Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Schweinfurt vs Erzgebirge Aue

Schweinfurt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Schweinfurt

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Erzgebirge Aue

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.3%0-26.1%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.4%1-110.7%1-28.9%1-34.9%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-17.8%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 27.4% 3.65 +26.7%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 40.7% 51.3% 1.95 -20.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.0% 1.45 -11.0%

Over 3.5 38.1% 48.8% 2.05 -21.9%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schweinfurt1.5

Erzgebirge Aue1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWEINFURT · PPG 0.89

ERZGEBIRGE AUE · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.89), Away POOR (0.61)

Win probability 1X2

Schweinfurt (H) 34.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +26.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Erzgebirge Aue (A) 40.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schweinfurt face Erzgebirge Aue in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schweinfurt a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Erzgebirge Aue 41%, so Erzgebirge Aue are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Schweinfurt and 1.7 for Erzgebirge Aue (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schweinfurt are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.61 for Erzgebirge Aue. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 2-4.

Schweinfurt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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