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Slavia Mozyr vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 21 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

UPCOMING

FC Vitebsk

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.6%0-27.4%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.2%2-16.7%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 38.8% 2.58 -13.3%

Draw 31.2% 34.6% 2.89 -9.8%

Away win 35.2% 33.9% 2.95 +3.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.2% 2.21 -5.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.74 -13.1%

BTTS 48.0% 54.3% 1.84 -11.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 37.9% 2.64 -18.7%

Away O1.5 32.9% 34.4% 2.91 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Mozyr1.0

FC Vitebsk1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.00

FC VITEBSK · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Mozyr (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -13.3%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.89 · IMPLIED 34.6% EV -9.8%

FC Vitebsk (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Mozyr face FC Vitebsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Mozyr a 34% chance, the draw 31% and FC Vitebsk 35%, so FC Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Slavia Mozyr and 1.1 for FC Vitebsk (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Mozyr are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.36 for FC Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%.

Slavia Mozyr vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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