Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha

Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:30

Al Sadd

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ahli Doha

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.0%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.9%1-17.3%1-25.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.8%3-17.1%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.5%4+-25.6%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 76.3% 1.31 -29.8%

Draw 21.9% 20.0% 5.00 +5.7%

Away win 24.5% 12.8% 7.80 +54.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 80.0% 1.25 -18.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 31.3% 3.20 +31.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 3–1✓ 7.1%

#5 1–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Sadd2.4

Al Ahli Doha1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SADD · PPG 1.71

AL AHLI DOHA · PPG 1.41

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Sadd (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -29.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.7%

Al Ahli Doha (A) 24.5%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +54.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Sadd face Al Ahli Doha in Qatar - Stars League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Sadd a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Al Ahli Doha 25%, so Al Sadd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Al Sadd and 1.5 for Al Ahli Doha (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Sadd are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.41 for Al Ahli Doha. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +60.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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