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Al-Arabi SC vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:30

Al-Arabi SC

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Shamal

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.5%0-25.6%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.1%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 36.8% 2.72 -4.5%

Draw 23.1% 27.8% 3.60 -10.1%

Away win 41.8% 44.4% 2.25 -5.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.6% 2.35 -7.4%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2✓ 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Arabi SC1.6

Al Shamal1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-ARABI SC · PPG 1.41

AL SHAMAL · PPG 1.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Arabi SC (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -4.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.1%

Al Shamal (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Arabi SC face Al Shamal in Qatar - Stars League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Arabi SC a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Al Shamal 42%, so Al Shamal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al-Arabi SC and 1.7 for Al Shamal (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Arabi SC are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.65 for Al Shamal. This match finished 2-2.

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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