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Surkhon vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 14:00

Surkhon

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Olmaliq

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.3%0-28.1%0-34.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 34.7% 2.88 -9.3%

BTTS 54.3% 60.6% 1.65 -10.4%

Home O1.5 31.2% 38.3% 2.61 -18.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 49.8% 2.01 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.3%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Surkhon1.2

Olmaliq1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SURKHON · PPG 0.89

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Surkhon (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Olmaliq (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Surkhon face Olmaliq in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Surkhon a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Olmaliq 45%, so Olmaliq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Surkhon and 1.6 for Olmaliq (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Surkhon are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.78 for Olmaliq. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Surkhon vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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