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Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:00

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.0%0-27.8%0-34.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 39.7% 2.52 -7.5%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.0%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Samarqand1.2

Pakhtakor1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.44

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Samarqand (H) 30.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Pakhtakor (A) 45.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Samarqand face Pakhtakor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Samarqand a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Pakhtakor 46%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dinamo Samarqand and 1.7 for Pakhtakor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Samarqand are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.50 for Pakhtakor. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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