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Puebla U21 vs Santos Laguna U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Puebla U21

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

UPCOMING

Santos Laguna U21

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-111.6%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.3%2-16.5%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.3%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Draw 33.1% 29.4% 3.40 +12.5%

Away win 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Over 2.5 34.5% 50.0% 2.00 -31.0%

Over 3.5 17.7% 29.9% 3.34 -24.5%

BTTS 43.6% 56.2% 1.78 -22.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 46.7% 2.14 -34.5%

Away O1.5 17.0% 34.7% 2.88 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla U211.1

Santos Laguna U210.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA U21 · PPG 1.21

SANTOS LAGUNA U21 · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 1.69 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puebla U21 (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +12.5%

Santos Laguna U21 (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla U21 face Santos Laguna U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla U21 a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Santos Laguna U21 23%, so Puebla U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Puebla U21 and 0.6 for Santos Laguna U21 (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla U21 are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.43 for Santos Laguna U21.

Puebla U21 vs Santos Laguna U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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