Aurora vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 20 Estadio Guillermo Slowing· Amatitlan Wednesday, April 15, 2026 —

Aurora PPG 1.67

0-1 HIT CS4

Marquense PPG 0.33

Away· +7.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Marquense 31%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aurora and 1.2 for Marquense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.7%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -14.8%

Draw 25.3%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -16.5%

Away 31.1%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +7.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.9% Odds: 1.85 -4.0%

Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: 3.10 -7.9%

BTTS 55.4% Odds: 1.67 -7.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✔

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aurora

1.51

Marquense

1.24

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+7.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=43.7%