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Aurora vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura · Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Aurora

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Marquense

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.9%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Draw 25.3% 30.3% 3.30 -16.5%

Away win 31.1% 29.0% 3.45 +7.3%

Over 2.5 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Over 3.5 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–1✓ 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.5

Marquense1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.67

MARQUENSE · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=43.7%

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.5%

Marquense (A) 31.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Marquense 31%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aurora and 1.2 for Marquense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Aurora vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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