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Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Warta Sieradz

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Olimpia Elbląg

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.2%0-23.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.8%1-18.7%1-26.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.2%3-16.3%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.3%4+-24.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Draw 21.2% 26.3% 3.80 -11.7%

Away win 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

Over 2.5 67.9% 63.7% 1.57 +6.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 41.2% 2.43 +9.3%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 60.2% 63.3% 1.58 -4.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 36.2% 2.76 +20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Sieradz2.1

Olimpia Elbląg1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA SIERADZ · PPG 1.36

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Warta Sieradz (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.7%

Olimpia Elbląg (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Sieradz face Olimpia Elbląg in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Sieradz a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Olimpia Elbląg 29%, so Warta Sieradz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Warta Sieradz and 1.5 for Olimpia Elbląg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Sieradz are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.41 for Olimpia Elbląg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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