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Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Troszyn

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Warta Sieradz

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.5%0-26.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.0%1-110.5%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.2%2-17.4%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 27.8% 3.60 +13.8%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 45.2% 57.8% 1.73 -21.8%

Over 2.5 62.6% 60.6% 1.65 +3.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 39.1% 2.56 +0.9%

BTTS 61.3% 63.3% 1.58 -3.1%

Home O1.5 39.8% 36.8% 2.72 +8.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Troszyn1.4

Warta Sieradz1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TROSZYN · PPG 1.49

WARTA SIERADZ · PPG 1.99

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Troszyn (H) 31.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

Warta Sieradz (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Troszyn face Warta Sieradz in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Troszyn a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Warta Sieradz 45%, so Warta Sieradz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Troszyn and 1.7 for Warta Sieradz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Troszyn are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.99 for Warta Sieradz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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