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Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Olimpia Elbląg

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wigry Suwałki

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.0%0-26.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.4%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 28.6% 3.50 +28.1%

Draw 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

Away win 38.6% 54.3% 1.84 -29.0%

Over 2.5 55.3% 61.0% 1.64 -9.3%

Over 3.5 35.5% 38.5% 2.60 -7.7%

BTTS 59.9% 64.9% 1.54 -7.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 38.5% 2.60 +4.3%

Away O1.5 47.4% 57.8% 1.73 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia Elbląg1.4

Wigry Suwałki1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG · PPG 1.13

WIGRY SUWAŁKI · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia Elbląg (H) 36.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +28.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.4%

Wigry Suwałki (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia Elbląg face Wigry Suwałki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia Elbląg a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Wigry Suwałki 39%, so Wigry Suwałki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.5 for Wigry Suwałki (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia Elbląg are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.40 for Wigry Suwałki. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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