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Mławianka Mława vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Mławianka Mława

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.1%0-24.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.0%1-19.0%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.6%3-24.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 41.3% 35.7% 2.80 +15.6%

Over 2.5 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 44.8% 2.23 -3.0%

BTTS 63.2% 70.9% 1.41 -10.9%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.5% 1.74 -15.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 48.1% 2.08 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

A 41% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mławianka Mława1.8

Lechia T. Mazowiecki1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA · PPG 1.11

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mławianka Mława (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mławianka Mława face Lechia T. Mazowiecki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mławianka Mława a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Lechia T. Mazowiecki 41%, so Lechia T. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mławianka Mława and 1.8 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mławianka Mława are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.97 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Mławianka Mława vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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