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Warta Sieradz vs Ząbkovia Ząbki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Warta Sieradz

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Ząbkovia Ząbki

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.7%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.7%1-17.0%1-24.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.8%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-19.4%4+-25.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 64.5% 1.55 -11.5%

Draw 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

Away win 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 44.8% 2.23 -3.0%

BTTS 62.2% 65.4% 1.53 -4.8%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.2%

H 57% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Sieradz2.6

Ząbkovia Ząbki1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA SIERADZ · PPG 1.56

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Warta Sieradz (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.8%

Ząbkovia Ząbki (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Sieradz face Ząbkovia Ząbki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Sieradz a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Ząbkovia Ząbki 22%, so Warta Sieradz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Warta Sieradz and 1.2 for Ząbkovia Ząbki (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Sieradz are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.87 for Ząbkovia Ząbki. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-4.

Warta Sieradz vs Ząbkovia Ząbki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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