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Wisła Płock II vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Wisła Płock II

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mławianka Mława

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.8%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.7%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.4%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 52.6% 1.90 +1.3%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Over 2.5 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Over 3.5 39.3% 46.5% 2.15 -15.5%

BTTS 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisła Płock II2.0

Mławianka Mława1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WISŁA PŁOCK II · PPG 1.76

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wisła Płock II (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Mławianka Mława (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisła Płock II face Mławianka Mława in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisła Płock II a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Mławianka Mława 24%, so Wisła Płock II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Wisła Płock II and 1.2 for Mławianka Mława (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisła Płock II are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.28 for Mławianka Mława. This match finished 5-3.

Wisła Płock II vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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