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Wisła Płock II vs Łomża Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Wisła Płock II

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Łomża

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.4%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.8%1-19.1%1-26.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.8%3-16.5%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Draw 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Away win 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Over 2.5 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.0% 2.38 +3.5%

BTTS 62.6% 64.1% 1.56 -2.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 64.1% 1.56 -7.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 34.2% 2.92 +20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisła Płock II2.1

Łomża1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WISŁA PŁOCK II · PPG 1.89

ŁOMŻA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wisła Płock II (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Łomża (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisła Płock II face Łomża in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisła Płock II a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Łomża 25%, so Wisła Płock II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Wisła Płock II and 1.4 for Łomża (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisła Płock II are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.25 for Łomża. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Wisła Płock II vs Łomża Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 1 Predictions