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Łomża vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Łomża

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Mławianka Mława

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.8%1-17.8%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.4%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 51.3% 1.95 +3.7%

Draw 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Away win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 66.7% 1.50 +0.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 45.2% 2.21 -3.9%

BTTS 63.2% 70.4% 1.42 -10.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 59.9% 1.67 +8.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Łomża2.4

Mławianka Mława1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ŁOMŻA · PPG 1.68

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Łomża (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Mławianka Mława (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Łomża face Mławianka Mława in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Łomża a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Mławianka Mława 24%, so Łomża are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Łomża and 1.4 for Mławianka Mława (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Łomża are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.32 for Mławianka Mława. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Łomża vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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