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Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Ząbkovia Ząbki

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wigry Suwałki

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.3%0-26.6%0-33.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.1%1-111.3%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-17.7%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.5% 2.41 -11.8%

BTTS 57.2% 66.2% 1.51 -13.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 39.8% 2.51 -5.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.2%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ząbkovia Ząbki1.4

Wigry Suwałki1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI · PPG 1.77

WIGRY SUWAŁKI · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ząbkovia Ząbki (H) 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Wigry Suwałki (A) 43.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ząbkovia Ząbki face Wigry Suwałki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ząbkovia Ząbki a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Wigry Suwałki 44%, so Wigry Suwałki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ząbkovia Ząbki and 1.6 for Wigry Suwałki (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ząbkovia Ząbki are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.47 for Wigry Suwałki. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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