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Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Jagiellonia II

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.5%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.8%1-18.3%1-27.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.3%3-15.6%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.5%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 52.1% 1.92 -16.1%

Draw 21.6% 28.6% 3.50 -14.6%

Away win 34.8% 32.3% 3.10 +7.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 70.9% 1.41 -3.8%

Over 3.5 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% 63.3% 1.58 -11.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia II2.0

Lechia T. Mazowiecki1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA II · PPG 1.52

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia II (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -16.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.6%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia II face Lechia T. Mazowiecki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia II a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Lechia T. Mazowiecki 35%, so Jagiellonia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Jagiellonia II and 1.7 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia II are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.23 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. This match finished 1-1.

Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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