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Olimpia Elbląg vs Widzew II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Olimpia Elbląg

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Widzew II

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.5%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-28.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.9%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 40.8% 2.45 +3.1%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 35.4% 42.6% 2.35 -16.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.5% 1.60 +1.8%

Over 3.5 40.9% 41.3% 2.42 -1.0%

BTTS 63.2% 67.1% 1.49 -5.8%

Home O1.5 48.8% 49.5% 2.02 -1.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 49.5% 2.02 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia Elbląg1.7

Widzew II1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG · PPG 1.30

WIDZEW II · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia Elbląg (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +3.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Widzew II (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia Elbląg face Widzew II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia Elbląg a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Widzew II 35%, so Olimpia Elbląg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.7 for Widzew II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia Elbląg are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.36 for Widzew II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Olimpia Elbląg vs Widzew II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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