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Al Wakrah vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 14:15

Al Wakrah

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Qatar SC

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 44.4% 2.25 -3.5%

Draw 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Away win 33.7% 36.5% 2.74 -7.7%

Over 2.5 62.0% 61.7% 1.62 +0.4%

Over 3.5 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 47.4% 51.8% 1.93 -8.5%

Away O1.5 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wakrah1.6

Qatar SC1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WAKRAH · PPG 1.47

QATAR SC · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Wakrah (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

Qatar SC (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wakrah face Qatar SC in Qatar - Stars League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wakrah a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Qatar SC 34%, so Al Wakrah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Wakrah and 1.5 for Qatar SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wakrah are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.41 for Qatar SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Wakrah vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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