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ASA vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

ASA

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goiatuba EC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-19.3%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.5%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.2%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 57.8% 1.73 -10.2%

Draw 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Away win 21.7% 21.1% 4.75 +1.8%

Over 2.5 42.5% 38.2% 2.62 +11.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

BTTS 45.0% 40.0% 2.50 +12.5%

Home O1.5 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Away O1.5 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.0%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.3%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA1.2

Goiatuba EC0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA · PPG 2.25

GOIATUBA EC · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ASA (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Goiatuba EC (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA face Goiatuba EC in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Goiatuba EC 22%, so ASA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for ASA and 0.6 for Goiatuba EC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.62 for Goiatuba EC. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +12.5%.

ASA vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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