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3 de Noviembre vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.0%0-27.9%0-33.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.9%2-17.1%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 31.3% 3.20 +12.3%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -9.3%

Away win 38.5% 48.8% 2.05 -21.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.7% 54.9% 1.82 -4.1%

Home O1.5 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.6% 2.24 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

3 de Noviembre1.1

Independiente F.b.c.1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.90

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

3 de Noviembre (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +12.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.3%

Independiente F.b.c. (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

3 de Noviembre face Independiente F.b.c. in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 3 de Noviembre a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Independiente F.b.c. 39%, so Independiente F.b.c. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for 3 de Noviembre and 1.4 for Independiente F.b.c. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 3 de Noviembre are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.40 for Independiente F.b.c.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 5-2.

3 de Noviembre vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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