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General Caballero vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 21:30

General Caballero

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Deportivo Capiata

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.9%1-19.2%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 66.7% 1.50 -11.3%

Draw 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%

Away win 19.6% 19.0% 5.25 +1.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 34.2% 2.92 +7.2%

BTTS 52.7% 52.1% 1.92 +1.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 62.5% 1.60 -1.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 22.2% 4.50 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

General Caballero2.2

Deportivo Capiata0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GENERAL CABALLERO · PPG 2.50

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

General Caballero (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.3%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.2%

Deportivo Capiata (A) 19.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

General Caballero face Deportivo Capiata in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives General Caballero a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Deportivo Capiata 20%, so General Caballero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for General Caballero and 0.9 for Deportivo Capiata (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, General Caballero are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Deportivo Capiata. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 2-1.

General Caballero vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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