Today / Treasure Beach vs Chapelton

Treasure Beach vs Chapelton Prediction

Regular Season - 34 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Treasure Beach

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Chapelton

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.6%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 37.6% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 42.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treasure Beach1.3

Chapelton0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TREASURE BEACH · PPG 1.07

CHAPELTON · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Treasure Beach (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chapelton (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Treasure Beach face Chapelton on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treasure Beach a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Chapelton 24%, so Treasure Beach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Treasure Beach and 0.9 for Chapelton (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treasure Beach are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.00 for Chapelton. This match finished 0-3.

Treasure Beach vs Chapelton Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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