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Beroe vs Montana Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 17:00

Beroe

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWD

UPCOMING

Montana

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.2%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-111.0%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.4%3-15.8%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Draw 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

Away win 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 34.1% 28.6% 3.50 +19.4%

BTTS 55.9% 56.2% 1.78 -0.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 43.5% 2.30 +14.8%

Away O1.5 32.7% 35.2% 2.84 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beroe1.8

Montana1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BEROE · PPG 2.06

MONTANA · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Beroe (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +3.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.2%

Montana (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beroe face Montana in Bulgaria - Second League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beroe a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Montana 27%, so Beroe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Beroe and 1.1 for Montana (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beroe are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.06 for Montana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.2%.

Beroe vs Montana Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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