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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:00

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

UPCOMING

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.5%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-112.2%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 62.5% 1.60 -19.8%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

Over 2.5 39.8% 48.1% 2.08 -17.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.9% 3.34 -18.1%

BTTS 46.2% 52.1% 1.92 -11.3%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.3% 1.84 -29.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 24.4% 4.10 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 12.2%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1.3

Ludogorets II0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.64

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -19.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Ludogorets II (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas face Ludogorets II in Bulgaria - Second League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Ludogorets II 22%, so Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.7 for Ludogorets II (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.16 for Ludogorets II.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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