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Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Pleven

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vihren

PPG 1.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.2%0-26.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.4%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Draw 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

Away win 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.9% 3.34 +5.2%

BTTS 54.3% 57.5% 1.74 -5.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.3% 2.61 -1.1%

Away O1.5 39.7% 43.1% 2.32 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Pleven1.3

Vihren1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK PLEVEN · PPG 1.47

VIHREN · PPG 1.84

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Pleven (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.8%

Vihren (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Pleven face Vihren in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Pleven a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Vihren 39%, so Vihren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spartak Pleven and 1.3 for Vihren (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Pleven are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.84 for Vihren. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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