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CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Spartak Pleven

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.9%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-19.9%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.5%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 69.4% 1.44 -16.9%

Draw 23.0% 24.4% 4.10 -3.4%

Away win 19.4% 17.4% 5.75 +6.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 34.2% 2.92 -7.4%

BTTS 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 23.9% 23.0% 4.35 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.0%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia II2.0

Spartak Pleven0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.90

SPARTAK PLEVEN · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia II (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.9%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.4%

Spartak Pleven (A) 19.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia II face Spartak Pleven in Bulgaria - Second League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia II a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Spartak Pleven 19%, so CSKA Sofia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for CSKA Sofia II and 0.8 for Spartak Pleven (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia II are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.13 for Spartak Pleven. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.4%.

CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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