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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:00

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

UPCOMING

Dobrudzha

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.4%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.8%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.9% 56.8% 1.76 -6.9%

Home O1.5 39.5% 44.1% 2.27 -10.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 35.2% 2.84 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1.4

Dobrudzha1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 1.28

DOBRUDZHA · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Dobrudzha (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa face Dobrudzha in Bulgaria - Second League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Dobrudzha 29%, so Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and 1.1 for Dobrudzha (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.07 for Dobrudzha. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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