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Ludogorets II vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.6%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 42.6% 2.35 +10.2%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 29.6% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 51.3% 1.95 +16.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 31.8% 3.14 +16.5%

BTTS 60.6% 59.9% 1.67 +1.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.0% 2.22 +8.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 39.8% 2.51 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets II1.8

Hebar 19181.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.62

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets II (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +10.2%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Hebar 1918 (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets II face Hebar 1918 in Bulgaria - Second League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets II a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Hebar 1918 30%, so Ludogorets II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ludogorets II and 1.3 for Hebar 1918 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets II are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.26 for Hebar 1918. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Ludogorets II vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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