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Sportist Svoge vs Marek Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Sportist Svoge

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Marek

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-111.8%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.4%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

Draw 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away win 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 39.9% 42.0% 2.38 -5.0%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.7% 4.40 -5.3%

BTTS 47.2% 51.0% 1.96 -7.5%

Home O1.5 31.1% 38.3% 2.61 -18.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 31.4% 3.18 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.1%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportist Svoge1.1

Marek0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIST SVOGE · PPG 1.36

MAREK · PPG 0.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportist Svoge (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Marek (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportist Svoge face Marek in Bulgaria - Second League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportist Svoge a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Marek 28%, so Sportist Svoge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportist Svoge and 0.8 for Marek (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportist Svoge are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.96 for Marek. This match finished 0-0.

Sportist Svoge vs Marek Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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