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Vihren vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Vihren

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.7%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.6%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.1%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 38.2% 2.62 -4.6%

BTTS 55.9% 62.1% 1.61 -10.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 57.1% 1.75 -2.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.2% 2.76 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vihren1.9

Etar Veliko Tarnovo1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIHREN · PPG 1.64

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vihren (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -12.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vihren face Etar Veliko Tarnovo in Bulgaria - Second League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vihren a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Etar Veliko Tarnovo 24%, so Vihren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vihren and 1.1 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vihren are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.30 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo.

Vihren vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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