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Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Fratria

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.4%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 55.6% 1.80 -15.4%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 27.2% 25.6% 3.90 +3.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 30.5% 29.9% 3.34 +1.9%

BTTS 53.3% 56.2% 1.78 -5.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 49.8% 2.01 -19.4%

Away O1.5 31.2% 31.1% 3.22 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0✓ 12.4%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fratria1.5

CSKA Sofia II1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FRATRIA · PPG 1.99

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.76

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fratria (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -15.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

CSKA Sofia II (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fratria face CSKA Sofia II in Bulgaria - Second League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fratria a 47% chance, the draw 26% and CSKA Sofia II 27%, so Fratria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fratria and 1.0 for CSKA Sofia II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fratria are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.76 for CSKA Sofia II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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