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Hebar 1918 vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:00

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fratria

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.3%0-27.1%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.7%1-111.8%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.9%2-17.5%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 42.0% 2.38 -17.9%

Draw 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Away win 41.8% 38.5% 2.60 +8.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.34 +5.9%

BTTS 55.9% 58.1% 1.72 -3.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 41.7% 2.40 -7.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 39.8% 2.51 +20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hebar 19181.3

Fratria1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.32

FRATRIA · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hebar 1918 (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Fratria (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hebar 1918 face Fratria in Bulgaria - Second League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hebar 1918 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Fratria 42%, so Fratria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hebar 1918 and 1.5 for Fratria (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hebar 1918 are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.73 for Fratria. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Hebar 1918 vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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