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Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:00

Raków Częstochowa

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

UPCOMING

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.0%0-25.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.1%1-110.9%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.8%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 45.9% 2.18 -22.6%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 41.1% 32.8% 3.05 +25.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 55.6% 1.80 +12.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 39.2% 2.55 +22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–2 5.4%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raków Częstochowa1.5

Gornik Zabrze1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA · PPG 1.14

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Raków Częstochowa (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -22.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 41.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raków Częstochowa face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Gornik Zabrze 41%, so Gornik Zabrze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.5 for Gornik Zabrze (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.64 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.1%.

Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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