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Mosul vs Al Zawra'a Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 15:45

Mosul

PPG 1.72 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Zawra'a

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.1%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.4%2-17.0%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 43.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 38.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -26.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mosul1.1

Al Zawra'a1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSUL · PPG 1.72

AL ZAWRA'A · PPG 1.51

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mosul (H) 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Zawra'a (A) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mosul face Al Zawra'a in Iraq - Iraqi League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mosul a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Al Zawra'a 43%, so Al Zawra'a are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mosul and 1.3 for Al Zawra'a (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mosul are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.51 for Al Zawra'a. This match finished 2-2.

Mosul vs Al Zawra'a Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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