Today / Brest vs Lens

Brest vs Lens Prediction

Friday, April 24, 2026

Brest

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lens

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.9%0-27.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.0%1-110.6%1-29.4%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 47.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 61.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.1%

A 48% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brest1.3

Lens1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BREST · PPG 1.71

LENS · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Brest (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lens (A) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brest face Lens on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brest a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Lens 48%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brest and 1.8 for Lens (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brest are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.64 for Lens. This match finished 3-3.

Brest vs Lens Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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